Renters are feeling more pessimistic than ever about the possibility of owning their own homes in the future. According to the latest annual SCE Housing Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, surveyed renters now believe there is an average probability of 40.1% that they will own their own homes in the future, down from 44.4% last year, marking the lowest record since 2015.

In the Northeast, where housing prices remain high, renters' hopes for buying a home have dramatically decreased, with only 25.8% believing they might buy a home in the future, a significant drop from last year's 51.4%. In contrast, home buying expectations in the Midwest have also fallen by 6 percentage points, while those in the South have remained stable, and expectations in the West have slightly increased by 2.5 percentage points.

Despite the adverse economic environment, most renters still indicate that they would choose to buy their own homes if economic conditions permitted. Among the surveyed, 69.9% said they would be willing or very eager to own their own home if they had sufficient financial resources.

However, continuously high mortgage rates and rising housing prices are making the dream of many potential first-time homebuyers increasingly remote. In February, when the survey was conducted, the average mortgage rate was 6.78%. By May 2, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage had climbed to 7.22%, the highest level since last November.

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According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, renters are feeling a significant increase in the difficulty of applying for mortgages. Only 10.1% of renters think the mortgage application process is easy or very easy, the lowest proportion on record. Meanwhile, 74.2% find it difficult or very difficult to obtain a mortgage, up 8.4 percentage points from last year and significantly higher than the 50.5% in 2021.

The survey also shows that ordinary families are similarly pessimistic about future mortgage interest rates. Most families expect the mortgage rate to rise to 8.7% after one year and to 9.7% after three years, both of which are the highest levels ever recorded.

Regarding housing prices, despite significant market pressure, prices continue to operate at high levels. According to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, nationwide housing prices rose 6.4% year-over-year in February, the largest increase since November 2022. Survey participants generally expect housing prices to continue to rise by 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the growth rate expected at this time last year and higher than the 4.2% average before the COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition to the high barriers in the housing market, pressure in the rental market is also increasing. Renters expect to face higher rents over the next year, with an expected growth rate of 9.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from last year.

In such an economic environment, renters' dreams of buying a home are severely challenged. Not only are high mortgage rates and continuously rising housing prices major obstacles, but the process of applying for a mortgage is also increasingly considered difficult and complex. These factors together lead many people to feel very pessimistic about their future ability to own their own homes.