According to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the national home price index continues to reach new highs, with housing prices rising in major cities and regions. Simultaneously, the continuous decline in mortgage interest rates may stimulate housing demand, and existing home sales have seen a rebound. However, despite these positive trends, the U.S. real estate market still faces uncertainties and risks.
Firstly, although the trend of rising home prices is evident, the varying pace of price increases across regions and cities requires careful analysis to determine the sustainability of this trend.
For instance, home prices in some cities have already reached historical highs, potentially dampening housing demand. Additionally, changes in population mobility due to factors such as the pandemic can impact the local supply and demand balance in housing markets.
The U.S. real estate market remains influenced by the macroeconomic environment. While the U.S. economy has been in continuous recovery for several years, recent data suggests potential risks of economic growth slowdown. If economic growth stalls, issues like rising unemployment may affect people's homebuying capacity and willingness.
Despite the decline in mortgage interest rates, this trend has not fully translated into a revival of home sales in the market. Even as more people begin to purchase homes, factors such as their affordability and loan conditions need consideration. Moreover, during the pandemic, banks and other financial institutions have tightened loan approval standards, potentially limiting the financing capability of some individuals.
Finally, despite the current positive trends, it's crucial to note that the U.S. real estate market still faces some structural issues. For example, due to insufficient new housing supply, rental prices continue to rise, leading some individuals to choose renting over homeownership. Additionally, in certain cities, developers find it challenging to build homes that meet the needs of the middle class due to increasing land and construction costs.