The industry organization believes that a major factor driving the decrease in interest rates is the slowdown of the U.S. economy. They predict that the U.S. economy will experience a recession in the first half of 2024, with an increase in unemployment rates and a slowdown in inflation, indicating signs of economic weakness.

Under these circumstances, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cease raising interest rates and may implement a policy of rate cuts. This will further drive the decrease in interest rates.

Based on these forecasts, the volume of mortgage loans in 2024 is expected to increase by 19%, from the projected $1.64 trillion this year to $1.95 trillion. This means that more people will have access to mortgage loans, promoting activity in the housing market.

However, despite the attractiveness of lower interest rates for homebuying, borrowers need to be aware of the challenges they may face in the coming months. Typically, the coming months are the off-season for home sales, resulting in a relatively sluggish market.

Additionally, due to ongoing inventory shortages, homebuyers may face limited choices. Furthermore, the uncertainties and economic fluctuations during the pandemic may also impact the housing market.

Nevertheless, it is expected that housing prices will remain stable or experience moderate growth. Data shows that due to persistent inventory shortages, housing prices are expected to continue rising over the next three years. The millennial generation is entering its prime home-buying years and will become a key driving force in the housing market. Therefore, even with the decrease in interest rates, housing prices may not experience significant drops but rather exhibit growth in the low single digits.

With the decrease in interest rates and the economic recovery, the mortgage loan market is expected to gradually become more active. Homebuyers will have more opportunities and choices, but they still need to carefully consider market conditions and their own financial capabilities.

At the same time, lenders should be prepared to address the challenges that may arise in the coming months and adopt corresponding strategies to respond to market changes.